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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.