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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."